|
Guessing
Strategy and Probability Tables
Do
not guess randomly!
Because the LSAT does not assess a scoring penalty for incorrect
answer choices, you should always guess on every question that you
cannot complete during the allotted time. However, because some
answer choices are historically more likely to occur than others,
you should not guess randomly. The following tables summarize which
answer choices have occurred most frequently over the years.
| LSAT
Answer Choice Probabilities |
|
|
|
A#
|
A%
|
|
B#
|
B%
|
|
C#
|
C%
|
|
D#
|
D%
|
|
E#
|
E%
|
|
Total
# |
|
LR
|
581 |
18.6% |
646 |
20.7% |
634 |
20.3% |
673 |
21.5% |
591 |
18.9% |
3125 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
RC
|
331 |
19.8% |
331 |
19.8% |
332 |
19.9% |
364 |
21.8% |
310 |
18.6% |
1668 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LG
|
282 |
19.4% |
297 |
20.4% |
286 |
19.7% |
293 |
20.2% |
295 |
20.3% |
1453 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total
|
1194 |
19.1% |
1274 |
20.4% |
1252 |
20.0% |
1330 |
21.3% |
1196 |
19.1% |
6246 |
|
All
Answer Choices June 1991 - June 2009* |
The table above documents the frequency with which each answer
choice appeared as a percentage of all LSAT answer choices between
June 1991 and June 2009 inclusive. If history holds, you would
be best served on the test as a whole by always guessing answer
choice (D). Do not choose random answer choices; do not put in a
pattern such as A-B-C-D-E etcetera. Although guessing answer choice
(D) does not guarantee you will get the questions correct, statistically
speaking guessing answer choice (D) gives you a better chance of
answering correctly than guessing randomly.
| Last
Five Answer Choices Per Section June 1991 - June 2009* |
|
|
|
A#
|
A%
|
|
B#
|
B%
|
|
C#
|
C%
|
|
D#
|
D%
|
|
E#
|
E%
|
|
T#
|
|
LR
|
92 |
14.8% |
118 |
19.0% |
122 |
19.7% |
142 |
22.9% |
146 |
23.5% |
620 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
RC
|
57 |
18.4% |
65 |
21.0% |
58 |
18.7% |
69 |
22.3% |
61 |
19.7% |
310 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LG
|
72 |
23.2% |
60 |
19.4% |
56 |
18.1% |
63 |
20.3% |
59 |
19.0% |
310 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total
|
221 |
17.8% |
243 |
19.6% |
236 |
19.0% |
274 |
22.1% |
266 |
21.5% |
1240 |
| *These
statistics do not include the unreleased February 1998, February
2001, February 2002, February 2003, February 2004, February
2005, February 2006, February 2007, February 2008, and February
2009 LSAT administrations. |
As the second table indicates, if you cannot finish the final questions
in a section, in the Logical Reasoning section you should always
guess answer choice (E). In the Reading Comprehension section you
should always guess answer choice (D), and in the Logic Games section
you should guess (A).
Please keep in mind that the strategies discussed above hold only
for pure guessing. If you are attempting to choose between two answer
choices, do not choose solely on the basis of statistics alone!
On a related note, if you are a strong test taker who correctly
answers most questions but occasionally does not finish a section,
quickly review the answer choices you have previously selected and
use the answer that appears least as your guessing answer choice.
For example, if you have completed twenty questions in a section,
and your answer sheet contains a majority of (A)’s, (B)’s,
(C)’s, and (E)’s, guess answer choice (D) for all of
the remaining questions to get the percentage of each response as
close to 20% as possible.
|